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Will Maine give Ron Paul his first win?
For those that are unaware the state law in Maine allows for a two-and-half month window for which voters may Caucus. This year the state Republican party recommended the week of Feb. 4th-11th. Even with a week window, 22 of the 97 municipalities decided to not hold their caucuses over that time.
Like Iowa, Colorado and Minnesota, Maine holds a non-binding caucus, so none of the state’s 24 GOP delegates are bound to vote for a candidate. The results being released Saturday are from a straw poll taken at each caucus that has no solid relation to the state delegates chosen.
The state does have a primary in June, but the presidential nomination isn’t even on the ballot.
Maine Republicans say it’s a two-man race between Paul and Romney. Until this point, Ron Paul is the only GOP contender to have visited the state this cycle and Mitt Romney won the state four years ago.
Charlie Webster, the chairman of the Maine Republican Party, said Romney is an established brand in Maine, his good reputation buttressed by his tenure as governor of nearby Massachusetts. He has also fundraised for the state GOP.
“Romney’s been here a lot. He was here during the last election cycle. He’s worked for the congressional candidates…he’s been around,” Webster said. “He actually has been here a lot — not in this cycle — but he’s pretty well known here.”
But Representative Paul is attempting to better his third-place showing in Maine from 2008. His strategy is a laser-like focus on the caucus states that award delegates proportionally, allowing him to amass delegates even if he doesn’t finish first in a race.
"If Ron Paul is going to win one state, this is the one," said Mark Brewer, associate professor of political science at the University of Maine in Orono.
"There's a particularly strong libertarian streak in Maine's political culture, and Ron Paul can tap into that in a way that the others really can't," Brewer said. "He can generate a mass of enthusiasm, particularly among college students."
Maine has only 24 delegates at stake, a fraction of the 1,144 needed to clinch the Republican nomination. But the symbolic importance of Maine to Mitt Romney has spiked after Tuesday, when the perceived front-runner lost to Santorum in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.
With that in mind, Romney flew to Portland late on Friday for a town hall meeting, hours after a speech to the conservative CPAC meeting in Washington.
"One can speculate that his campaign is hearing some things they don't really like out of Maine," Brewer said. "It certainly sounds like Ron Paul is doing well so far."
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